An article over at Variety.com quotes sources, “close to publisher Take-Two Interactive” as saying the forthcoming Grand Theft Auto IV will make US$400 million in its first week. To put that in context, Halo 3 managed US$300 million in its first week and that game currently holds the top spot for sales.
The source also went on to say they fully expect sales to exceed 6 million units worldwide. So far Halo 3 has managed 5 million units. Take-Two has declined to comment on the speculative figures.
So, regardless of who said what, could GTA IV take the top spot on release? I would have to say it definitely and easily could. There are a number of reasons for that statement and here they are:
- GTA has built its fan base over several years with iterations of the game adding ever more things to do while improving on the presentation. The previews I have read are all positive and it looks like GTA IV is going to continue the tradition of a game everyone wants to play.
- The previous game in the series, GTA San Andreas, has stacked up over 21 million sales worldwide. The user base for the PS3 and Xbox 360 is still relatively small, but 6 million doesn’t seem like a lot when you think over 3 times the people bought the previous game.
- There have been no other really big releases on the 360 and PS3 for a while. Gamers want a new big game to play and you don’t get any bigger than GTA. Gamers will be buying it in droves.
- I would say the popularity of the GTA series is at least on par with Halo. Halo 3 has set the next-gen sales record, but GTA IV has the distinct advantage of releasing on Microsoft and Sony hardware simultaneously. The user base of both consoles has also continued to grow significantly since the release of Halo 3. The potential is certainly there for US$400 million in the first week.
There isn’t long to wait now until we find out if these forecasts are right. The only stumbling block for Take-Two and Rockstar is if the game is delayed or supply does not meet demand. Either of those could stifle sales for a while and allow Halo 3 to retain the top spot.
Read more at Variety.com
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